Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
3%
Limited history+0.6pp
24h activity $500Closes 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 20% probability for this outcome, a -1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
20%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
20%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 7.5pp from 28% to 20%, gradually rather than in one jump.
28%
16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
27%
16 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
27%
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
27%
17 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
21%
18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
20%
21 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $14K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2.7% | +0.6pp | $43K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 20.0% | -1.5pp | $14K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 13.5% | — | $11K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 33.5% | +0.5pp | $26K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC