Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?
45%
Limited history-19.0pp
24h activity $1KCloses 1 Jan 2028
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 7% probability for this outcome, a -0.8pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
7%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
7%
24h Change
-0.8pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 4.3pp, from 4% to 8%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC.
4%
5 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
4%
5 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
4%
5 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
4%
5 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
8%
8 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
7%
9 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.8pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $45K and 24h activity is $233. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 45.0% | -19.0pp | $28K | active |
| December 31, 2026 | 6.5% | — | $72K | active |
| November 30, 2026 | 6.7% | -0.8pp | $45K | active |
| October 31, 2026 | 1.5% | — | $27K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 20.0% | — | $34K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 25.0% | — | $16K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Dec 2026, 04:59 UTC