Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
20%
Limited history-10.0pp
24h activity $100KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 13% probability for this outcome, a -4.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
13%Probability moved down 4.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
13%
24h Change
-4.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
28
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 8.5pp, from 24% to 16%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
24%
15 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
16%
15 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
17%
15 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
17%
16 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
17%
16 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
13%
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 19.5% | -10.0pp | $81K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 6.5% | — | $36K | active |
| October 31, 2026 | 12.5% | -4.0pp | $27K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC