Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
APYX FDV above $80M one day after launch?
85%
Limited history+10.0pp
24h activity $445Closes 1 Jan 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 79% probability for this outcome, a +7.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
79%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
79%
24h Change
+7.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 5.5pp, from 71% to 77%, between 10:00 and 11:55 UTC.
71%
15 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
71%
15 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
71%
15 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
71%
15 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
77%
19 Sept 2026, 11:55 UTC
79%
19 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 7.5pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $962 and 24h activity is $584. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 79.0% | +7.5pp | $962 | active |
| $80M | 85.0% | +10.0pp | $347 | active |
| $300M | 61.5% | +33.5pp | $87 | active |
| $200M | 38.0% | +13.5pp | $62 | active |
| $50M | 98.0% | +0.3pp | $92 | active |
| $1B | 4.5% | +0.05pp | $1K | active |
| $800M | 2.0% | -0.1pp | $908 | active |
| $500M | 8.0% | — | $63 | active |
| $150M | 53.0% | +3.5pp | $61 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Apyx's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Apyx will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Apyx (https://x.com/apyx_fi) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC