Politics
LowFresh
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
19%
-6.5ppVol $428Closes 20 Sept 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 216 matching politics markets.
Showing 109-144 of 216 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit California in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.7pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
-7.7ppVol $423Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +27.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
83%
+27.0ppVol $415Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Low-confidence: move is +10.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
79%
+10.5ppVol $413Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
13%
-3.5ppVol $410Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
30%
+9.0ppVol $408Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
4%
+3.5ppVol $377Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Included because probability moved -4.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
12%
-4.0ppVol $368Closes 9 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
Included because probability moved -4.2pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
3%
-4.2ppVol $352Closes 9 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
+7.0ppVol $350Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Low-confidence: move is +9.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
25%
+9.5ppVol $338Closes 17 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will União Brasil (UNIÃO) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+5.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-5.0ppVol $334Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
Included because probability moved -3.9pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
0%
-3.9ppVol $334Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-5.0ppVol $318Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will there be between 95m and 100m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
Low-confidence: move is +4.7pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
15%
+4.7ppVol $277Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
36%
-5.5ppVol $274Closes 17 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Low-confidence: move is +10.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
85%
+10.5ppVol $269Closes 30 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
60%
+3.0ppVol $258Closes 23 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-5.5ppVol $240Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Alabama in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
+6.5ppVol $230Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
59%
-8.0ppVol $226Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
8%
-6.5ppVol $218Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Lecornu out as French PM by July 31, 2026?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
-9.6ppVol $218Closes 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
26%
-8.0ppVol $217Closes 17 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
77%
+7.0ppVol $204Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
73%
+3.0ppVol $200Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
83%
-5.5ppVol $180Closes 23 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
18%
-5.0ppVol $178Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
31%
-3.0ppVol $160Closes 20 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +10.6pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
26%
+10.6ppVol $157Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +14.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
26%
-14.5ppVol $148Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Haiti elections delayed again?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
73%
+3.0ppVol $137Closes 30 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +13.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
22%
-13.5ppVol $135Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
+3.0ppVol $132Closes 18 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
88%
+3.5ppVol $127Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Suzzanna V. Tanner advance to the general election for WA-03?
Low-confidence: move is +5.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
7%
+5.8ppVol $122Closes 4 Aug 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp388 markets with notable movementCombined activity $3.2M
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