EAEventAlpha
Politics

Haiti elections delayed again?

73%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTCLow-confidence move+3.5pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because a confidence cap is active in the latest market state.

Signal: Low

Current

73%

24h Change

+3.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

8

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 3.5pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
73.0%
No implied probability
27.0%
Liquidity
$7K
Market Activity
$15K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

After earlier delays, the first round of the 2026 Haitian legislative and presidential elections is currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026, with a potential second round set for December 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first round of voting for the presidency or the national legislative bodies, including the Senate (Sénat) and the Chamber of Deputies (Chambre des Députés), is rescheduled to take place after August 30, 2026, or otherwise does not take place by August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary source of resolution for this market will be Official information from the Haitian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC

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