EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

30%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTCLow-confidence move-3.5pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because a confidence cap is active in the latest market state.

Signal: Low

Current

30%

24h Change

-3.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.5pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
30.0%
No implied probability
70.0%
Liquidity
$10K
Market Activity
$19K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

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