Finance
LowFresh
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
35%
-4.5ppVol $65KCloses 31 Dec 2027
Category
Finance
Macro, rates, and equity benchmark probability signals from prediction markets.
586 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 44 matching finance markets.
Showing 1-36 of 44 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Finance
LowFresh
Will GBP/USD hit 1.25 (Low) in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
43%
Vol $37KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
48%
+0.5ppVol $18KCloses 9 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
39%
Vol $13KCloses 31 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
47%
-0.5ppVol $12KCloses 12 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
36%
-0.05ppVol $8KCloses 12 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
-1.0ppVol $7KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.90% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
54%
+3.0ppVol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/CAD hit 1.45 (High) in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
45%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/KRW hit 1400 (Low) in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
54%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-1.0ppVol $4KCloses 10 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.8pp).
Stable consensus
57%
+0.8ppVol $3KCloses 10 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
65%
-1.5ppVol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
HighFresh
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
62%
+1.0ppVol $2KCloses 24 Jul 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
40%
-3.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
43%
Vol $2KCloses 9 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/KRW hit 1600 (High) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
39%
-2.0ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
HighFresh
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
-1.0ppVol $935Closes 24 Jul 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
-7.0ppVol $906Closes 12 Feb 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Amazon 2026 capex above $210B?
Low-confidence: move is +7.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
-7.5ppVol $664Closes 30 Apr 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
+1.0ppVol $456Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?
Low-confidence: move is +25.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
54%
+25.8ppVol $353Closes 31 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
-1.0ppVol $322Closes 23 Jul 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +19.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-19.5ppVol $314Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
62%
-1.0ppVol $307Closes 16 Jul 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Amazon 2026 capex above $220B?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
+3.0ppVol $298Closes 30 Apr 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/KRW hit 1350 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
43%
+3.5ppVol $273Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.75% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +8.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
+8.5ppVol $131Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will GBP/USD hit 1.30 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +37.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
53%
-37.5ppVol $130Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/CAD hit 1.25 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +8.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
+8.5ppVol $86Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
48%
Vol $72Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/CAD hit 1.33 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
-5.0ppVol $56Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
57%
-1.5ppVol $47Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Discord IPO before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
-1.0ppVol $29Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.00% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +10.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+10.0ppVol $26Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +40.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
+40.0ppVol $19Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 3.2pp107 markets with notable movementCombined activity $5.9M
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