Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
70%
Limited history+3.0pp
24h activity $33KCloses 30 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
2%Recent probability movement (down 0.8pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
2%
24h Change
-0.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
34
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.8pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yabloko | 1.8% | -0.8pp | $102K | active |
| United Russia (ER) | 69.5% | +3.0pp | $253K | active |
| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 5.2% | -0.1pp | $138K | active |
| Rodina | 0.2% | +0.05pp | $137K | active |
| New People (NL) | 22.1% | +0.3pp | $114K | active |
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 0.3% | — | $275K | active |
| Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 1.7% | -0.6pp | $171K | active |
| Civic Platform (GP) | 0.1% | — | $334K | active |
Probability sum: 100.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: Per market rules, the market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the listed party “compared to [the number of seats they held] before the election,” specifically meaning the party’s seat count in the outgoing State Duma as of 12:00 PM Moscow time on the calendar day immediately preceding the official scheduled date of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election, as determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on Russian government sources such as the State Duma or its official media outlets (e.g., https://dumatv.ru/fractions).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
70%
5%
0%
22%
0%
2%