Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026?
4%
Limited history+1.5pp
24h activity $2KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 31% probability for this outcome, a +6.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
31%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
31%
24h Change
+6.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 9.5pp from 40% to 31%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
40%
16 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
39%
16 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
40%
16 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC
39%
16 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC
39%
16 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
31%
20 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 6.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $16K and 24h activity is $226. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 4.20 | 4.2% | +1.5pp | $30K | active |
| ↑ 3.00 | 7.2% | -0.3pp | $23K | active |
| ↑ 2.60 | 12.0% | +1.5pp | $22K | active |
| ↑ 3.40 | 4.3% | +0.3pp | $23K | active |
| ↓ 0.80 | 17.5% | +4.5pp | $20K | active |
| ↓ 1.00 | 30.5% | +6.0pp | $16K | active |
| ↑ 2.80 | 7.7% | -4.7pp | $22K | active |
| ↑ 4.00 | 3.8% | — | $24K | active |
| ↓ 1.20 | 61.5% | +3.5pp | $4K | active |
| ↑ 3.20 | 5.2% | +0.3pp | $23K | active |
| ↑ 5.00 | 2.5% | -0.1pp | $45K | active |
| ↓ 0.60 | 8.5% | — | $22K | active |
| ↓ 0.40 | 3.3% | — | $26K | active |
| ↓ 0.20 | 2.2% | — | $30K | active |
| ↑ 3.60 | 3.1% | +0.05pp | $23K | active |
| ↑ 3.80 | 3.1% | +0.05pp | $23K | active |
| ↑ 6.00 | 1.6% | — | $6K | active |
| ↑ 8.00 | 1.8% | — | $7K | active |
| ↓ 2.00 | 100.0% | +8.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 1.80 | 100.0% | +8.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 1.60 | 100.0% | +13.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 2.40 | 100.0% | +22.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 1.20 | 100.0% | +43.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 1.40 | 100.0% | +19.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 1.00 | 100.0% | +11.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 1.40 | 100.0% | +13.9pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for XRP (XRP/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XRP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC