Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?
92%
Limited history+2.5pp
24h activity $15KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 94% probability for this outcome, a +0.3pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
94%Recent probability movement (up 0.3pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
94%
24h Change
+0.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.3pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 92.0% | +2.5pp | $27K | active |
| December 31 | 94.9% | -1.1pp | $50K | active |
| October 31 | 93.8% | +0.3pp | $32K | active |
| September 23 | 77.0% | +26.5pp | $4K | active |
| September 24 | 85.5% | -0.5pp | $15K | active |
| September 15 | 0.4% | — | $16K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
92%
95%
77%
86%
0%