EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?

21%Synced 13 Jul 2026, 02:00 UTCLow-confidence move+13.5pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

21%

24h Change

+13.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

4

0%25%50%75%100%23:000:001:002:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 13.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $2K and 24h volume is $67. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
21.0%
No implied probability
79.0%
Liquidity
$2K
Market Activity
$236
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
13 Jul 2026, 02:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 7 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

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