Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Yordan Alvarez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?
30%
Limited history-8.0pp
24h activity $425Closes 28 Sept 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 0.1pp from 1% to 1%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
1%
16 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
1%
16 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
1%
16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
1%
16 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
1%
17 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
1%
20 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | 30.0% | -8.0pp | $379 | active |
| Luis Arraez | 54.0% | +4.5pp | $312 | active |
| Jeremy Peña | 0.4% | — | $527 | active |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Drake Baldwin | 0.8% | — | $2K | active |
| Jordan Walker | 0.1% | — | $722 | active |
| Andy Pages | 0.1% | — | $652 | active |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.9% | +0.05pp | $656 | active |
| Otto Lopez | 5.8% | +0.3pp | $431 | active |
| Yandy Díaz | 0.9% | -0.6pp | $1K | active |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 0.5% | — | $3K | active |
| Aaron Judge | 0.1% | — | $836 | active |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5% | — | $553 | active |
| Freddie Freeman | 2.9% | -0.5pp | $281 | active |
| Riley Greene | 0.1% | — | $842 | active |
| Jacob Wilson | 0.1% | — | $567 | active |
| Sal Stewart | 0.1% | — | $523 | active |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.1% | — | $284 | active |
| George Springer | 0.1% | — | $794 | active |
| Josh Naylor | 0.3% | — | $434 | active |
| Ben Rice | 0.1% | — | $380 | active |
| Wilyer Abreu | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $563 | active |
| Mauricio Dubón | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $540 | active |
| Bo Bichette | 0.1% | — | $872 | active |
| Trea Turner | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $351 | active |
| Alec Burleson | 0.5% | — | $403 | active |
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.1% | — | $426 | active |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.3% | — | $471 | active |
| CJ Abrams | 0.1% | — | $614 | active |
| Shea Langeliers | 0.1% | — | $327 | active |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.1% | — | $378 | active |
Probability sum: 99.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the player who records the highest batting average among qualified players during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more doubles during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC