Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
15%
Limited history-71.5pp
24h activity $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a +0.4pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
5%
24h Change
+0.4pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.4pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $10K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 15.0% | -71.5pp | $13K | active |
| Alabama | 87.0% | -5.0pp | $14K | active |
| Utah | 91.5% | +1.0pp | $18K | active |
| Wisconsin | 3.6% | -0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Indiana | 4.5% | — | $16K | active |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
| New York | 2.6% | -0.2pp | $13K | active |
| Texas | 98.3% | +0.2pp | $11K | active |
| California | 97.3% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Maryland | 4.0% | -0.3pp | $10K | active |
| Minnesota | 4.7% | -0.2pp | $12K | active |
| Louisiana | 93.0% | — | $13K | active |
| North Carolina | 96.2% | +0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Illinois | 2.4% | — | $10K | active |
| Virginia | 5.0% | +0.4pp | $10K | active |
| Washington | 3.4% | — | $11K | active |
| Georgia | 5.4% | +0.05pp | $15K | active |
| Kansas | 1.6% | -0.3pp | $10K | active |
| Nebraska | 5.2% | -0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Ohio | 94.5% | -1.1pp | $11K | active |
| Florida | 98.4% | — | $11K | active |
| New Jersey | 4.3% | +0.3pp | $12K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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