Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?
2%
Limited history
24h activity $20Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 46% probability for this outcome, a -3.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
46%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
46%
24h Change
-3.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
26
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 14.5pp, from 39% to 53%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC.
50%
15 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
47%
15 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
48%
15 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
49%
16 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
53%
16 Sept 2026, 11:00 UTC
46%
16 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $217 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 1.8% | — | $95K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 46.0% | -3.5pp | $217 | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 47.5% | +42.5pp | $91 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC