Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
43%
Limited history-1.4pp
Lifetime volume $11KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 15% probability for this outcome, a -11.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
15%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
15%
24h Change
-11.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 21.5pp, from 20% to 41%, between 05:00 and 06:00 UTC.
17%
17 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
20%
17 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
28%
17 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
38%
17 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
41%
17 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
15%
21 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 11.5pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $26 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ThreadGuy | 42.9% | -1.4pp | $39 | active |
| Guy Young | 37.0% | — | $70 | active |
| Ansem | 30.4% | -0.1pp | $38 | active |
| Brian Armstrong | 6.9% | +0.05pp | $184 | active |
| Arthur Hayes | 42.1% | -4.2pp | $26 | active |
| SBF | 18.0% | -7.2pp | $59 | active |
| Jeff Yan | 45.2% | +3.1pp | $34 | active |
| Jesse Pollak | 43.6% | +8.3pp | $36 | active |
| CZ | 25.1% | -0.3pp | $114 | active |
| Vitalik Buterin | 5.5% | -0.1pp | $27 | active |
| GCR | 45.5% | +0.3pp | $35 | active |
| Thomas Lee | 1.1% | — | $20 | active |
| Michael Saylor | 49.9% | — | $5 | active |
| Su Zhu | 43.0% | — | $47 | active |
| thiccy | 15.0% | -11.5pp | $26 | active |
| Martin Shkreli | 43.5% | — | $31 | active |
| Gainzy | 10.7% | — | $27 | active |
| Anatoly Yakovenko | 42.1% | -4.8pp | $10 | active |
| light | 47.1% | +0.5pp | $14 | active |
| Andrew Kang | 41.3% | -0.05pp | $35 | active |
| Javier Milei | 42.0% | +0.5pp | $31 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC