Sport

Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus+0.1pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

24h Change

+0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 1.4%
No implied probability: 98.5%
Liquidity: $105K
24h activity: $91
Lifetime volume: $829K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 17 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $105K and 24h activity is $91. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
St. Louis Cardinals	0.3%	+0.1pp	$172K	active
Atlanta Braves	7.1%	+0.1pp	$150K	active
Milwaukee Brewers	8.9%	+0.6pp	$146K	active
Toronto Blue Jays	1.3%	-0.4pp	$73K	active
Philadelphia Phillies	3.6%	+0.3pp	$124K	active
Los Angeles Dodgers	31.5%	-2.0pp	$166K	active
Chicago White Sox	3.3%	+0.9pp	$139K	active
Cleveland Guardians	0.8%	—	$163K	active
Chicago Cubs	6.0%	-0.4pp	$136K	active
Baltimore Orioles	0.5%	+0.3pp	$147K	active
Texas Rangers	1.1%	-0.1pp	$153K	active
San Diego Padres	3.0%	+0.3pp	$61K	active
Washington Nationals	0.1%	-0.05pp	$165K	active
Arizona Diamondbacks	1.2%	-0.05pp	$167K	active
Detroit Tigers	1.3%	-0.5pp	$164K	active
Pittsburgh Pirates	0.1%	—	$201K	active
Seattle Mariners	1.4%	+0.1pp	$105K	active
Boston Red Sox	5.3%	-0.1pp	$144K	active
Minnesota Twins	0.5%	+0.05pp	$133K	active
New York Yankees	10.5%	+0.5pp	$175K	active
Colorado Rockies	0.1%	—	$307K	active
Miami Marlins	0.3%	—	$100K	active
Los Angeles Angels	0.1%	—	$345K	active
San Francisco Giants	0.1%	—	$247K	active
Cincinnati Reds	0.1%	—	$228K	active
Houston Astros	2.9%	-0.1pp	$118K	active
Kansas City Royals	0.1%	—	$230K	active
New York Mets	0.1%	—	$102K	active
Tampa Bay Rays	7.8%	+0.1pp	$143K	active
Athletics	0.1%	—	$225K	active

Probability sum: 99.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Oct 2026, 23:55 UTC