Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
23%
Limited history+1.5pp
24h activity $7KCloses 4 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 78% probability for this outcome, a -1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
78%Recent probability movement (down 1.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
78%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 2.0pp, from 80% to 78%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.
80%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
80%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
80%
28 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
80%
28 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
78%
28 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
78%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds (R) | 77.5% | -1.0pp | $78K | active |
| David Jolly (D) | 23.0% | +1.5pp | $107K | active |
Probability sum: 100.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
Why this may have moved
Checked 25 Sept 2026, 04:42 UTC
Attribution may be stale because this market has newer stored metrics.
economictimes.indiatimes.com published a matched report during the movement window: US midterm elections 2026 latest polls : US midterm elections 2026 : Top races , leads and who is winning in November
The source title directly matched the market entity and driver terms (win), so this may explain the move.
economictimes.indiatimes.com
Matched source title terms: win.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC