Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?
58%
Limited history-8.5pp
24h activity $2KCloses 4 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 41% probability for this outcome, a +7.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
41%Recent probability movement (up 7.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
41%
24h Change
+7.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 8.5pp from 33% to 41%, gradually rather than in one jump.
33%
28 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
33%
28 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
33%
28 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
33%
28 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
38%
1 Oct 2026, 14:27 UTC
41%
2 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 7.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Garcia (D) | 58.0% | -8.5pp | $44K | active |
| Carlos De La Cruz (R) | 41.0% | +7.5pp | $40K | active |
Probability sum: 99.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC