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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
-38.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 43.0pp from 43% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
43%
31 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
43%
31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
43%
31 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
43%
31 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
16%
4 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
0%
4 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | 0.1% | -38.0pp | $41K | resolved |
| Bob Harvie (D) | 100.0% | +38.0pp | $28K | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)