Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + AUR?
1%
Limited history-8.9pp
24h activity $2KCloses 1 Jan 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome, a -4.8pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
3%
24h Change
-4.8pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 2.7pp, from 5% to 8%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC.
5%
28 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
8%
1 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
3%
2 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.8pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $858 and 24h activity is $180. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSD + AUR | 0.5% | -8.9pp | $832 | active |
| AUR | 2.4% | -8.1pp | $13K | active |
| PSD | 4.0% | -7.9pp | $833 | active |
| PNL | 3.4% | -4.8pp | $858 | active |
| Other | 2.8% | -3.0pp | $12K | active |
| PSD + PNL + UDMR | 14.7% | — | $18K | active |
| PSD + UDMR | 11.8% | — | $18K | active |
| UDMR | 2.2% | — | $14K | active |
| USR | 1.1% | — | $12K | active |
| PNL + USR | 5.5% | +2.1pp | $305 | active |
| USR + UDMR | 0.6% | +0.05pp | $13K | active |
| PNL + USR + UDMR | 4.1% | — | $585 | active |
| USR + AUR | 0.9% | — | $12K | active |
| UDMR + AUR | 2.1% | — | $12K | active |
| USR + UDMR + AUR | 1.1% | — | $12K | active |
| PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR | 2.6% | — | $13K | active |
| PSD + USR | 2.1% | — | $12K | active |
| PSD + USR + UDMR | 4.8% | +0.05pp | $549 | active |
| PNL + UDMR + AUR | 1.5% | +0.1pp | $12K | active |
| PSD + PNL + USR + AUR | 2.6% | — | $12K | active |
| PNL + AUR | 1.3% | +0.1pp | $12K | active |
| PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR | 2.6% | — | $12K | active |
| PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR | 3.6% | — | $303 | active |
| PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR | 1.1% | — | $12K | active |
| PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR | 1.1% | — | $12K | active |
| PSD + UDMR + AUR | 1.1% | — | $12K | active |
| PNL + UDMR | 2.1% | — | $12K | active |
| PSD + USR + AUR | 0.8% | — | $12K | active |
| PNL + USR + AUR | 1.0% | — | $12K | active |
| PSD + PNL + USR | 5.5% | -1.0pp | $606 | active |
| PSD + PNL | 6.7% | +0.6pp | $552 | active |
| PSD + PNL + AUR | 3.6% | -0.1pp | $497 | active |
Probability sum: 101.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC