Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
73%
Limited history+2.5pp
24h activity $1KCloses 1 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 20% probability for this outcome, a -28.9pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
20%Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
20%
24h Change
-28.9pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 42.0pp, from 73% to 31%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC.
14%
4 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
14%
4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
14%
4 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
11%
4 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
31%
8 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
20%
8 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 28.9pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $3K and 24h activity is $1K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Swift | 20.3% | -28.9pp | $3K | active |
| Jay Z | 72.5% | +2.5pp | $1K | active |
| Harry Styles | 23.1% | +7.5pp | $1K | active |
| Justin Bieber | 29.4% | -15.6pp | $362 | active |
| Miley Cyrus | 39.5% | -7.0pp | $387 | active |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 7.5% | — | $692 | active |
| Post Malone | 9.5% | +1.0pp | $1K | active |
| Kanye West | 3.6% | — | $8K | active |
| Dua Lipa | 9.2% | +0.3pp | $5K | active |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 2.3% | +0.1pp | $187 | active |
| Morgan Wallen | 10.5% | -1.0pp | $756 | active |
| Drake | 7.3% | — | $4K | active |
| Luke Combs | 12.0% | — | $2K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person during the Super Bowl LXI halftime show currently scheduled for February 14, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying performances include but are not limited to singing and dancing. An appearance during the event where an individual does not perform as an incorporated part of the show will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution. "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched to music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LXI halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC