Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Russia make Eric Adams a citizen?
7%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $96Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 11% probability for this outcome, a +0.8pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
11%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
11%
24h Change
+0.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.8pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $333 and 24h activity is $5. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan | 10.7% | +0.8pp | $333 | active |
| Russia | 6.5% | — | $148 | active |
| China | 10.0% | +0.5pp | $670 | active |
| Israel | 14.5% | +0.5pp | $139 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country makes Eric Adams a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from Eric Adams indicating intent to seek citizenship from the listed country will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from the listed country or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Eric Adams a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only the listed country's actually making Eric Adams a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of the listed country or Eric Adams. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
7%
10%
15%