Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
82%
Limited history-0.05pp
24h activity $66Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome, a -1.8pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
-1.8pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 3.8pp from 4% to 0%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
4%
21 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
4%
21 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
4%
21 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
4%
21 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
1%
25 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
0%
25 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.8pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $8K and 24h activity is $17. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | 81.5% | -0.05pp | $6K | active |
| November | 3.5% | — | $9K | active |
| December | 5.5% | -0.5pp | $6K | active |
| October | 10.7% | -0.6pp | $5K | active |
| September | 0.5% | -1.8pp | $8K | active |
| February | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| January | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| April | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| June | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| May | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July | 0.0% | -4.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 101.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the calendar month in 2026 during which Bitcoin has the highest percentage change. The “Change” value shown for each monthly candle will be used. A monthly candle is considered finalized once the following month’s candle is published. The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT trading pair: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT If two or more months are tied for the highest percentage change, this market will resolve to the earliest month chronologically. Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered. If it becomes impossible for a given month to have the highest percentage change in 2026, that outcome may resolve to “No” immediately.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC