Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
96%
Limited history+37.0pp
24h activity $3KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome, a -0.7pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%Recent probability movement (down 0.7pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
-0.7pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.6pp from 1% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
1%
21 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
1%
21 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
1%
21 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
1%
21 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
3%
25 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
0%
25 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.7pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 95.5% | +37.0pp | $868 | active |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 1.3% | -38.2pp | $2K | active |
| Sean O'Malley | 0.2% | -0.7pp | $2K | active |
| Song Yadong | 1.9% | +0.9pp | $3K | active |
| David Martinez | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Marlon Vera | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Mario Bautista | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
Probability sum: 99.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Bantamweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/athletes. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC