Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
99%
Limited history+3.3pp
24h activity $611Closes 4 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a +0.4pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
+0.4pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 1.5pp from 3% to 1%, gradually rather than in one jump.
3%
31 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
3%
31 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
3%
31 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
3%
31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
2%
1 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC
1%
4 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.4pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $11K and 24h activity is $264. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiona Ma | 98.7% | +3.3pp | $10K | active |
| Oliver Ma | 0.5% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| David Fennell | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Janelle Kellman | 1.1% | -0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Josh Fryday | 1.3% | -0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Rakesh Christian | 0.9% | -1.0pp | $11K | active |
| Sean Collinson | 1.2% | +0.4pp | $11K | active |
| Ebie Lynch | 0.3% | — | $11K | active |
| David Collenberg | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Jeyson Lopez | 0.1% | — | $12K | active |
| Michael Tubbs | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
Probability sum: 105.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC