Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
5%
Limited history+1.9pp
24h activity $185Closes 31 Aug 2026
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Current implied probability
24%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
24%
24h Change
-5.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 5.5pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $6K and 24h activity is $1K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 23.5% | -5.5pp | $6K | active |
| Sam Burns | 4.8% | +1.9pp | $2K | active |
| Ludvig Åberg | 3.8% | -0.6pp | $887 | active |
| Xander Schauffele | 3.0% | -0.9pp | $1K | active |
| Cameron Young | 6.5% | -1.0pp | $2K | active |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 4.3% | -0.2pp | $559 | active |
| Sahith Theegala | 1.1% | -1.0pp | $1K | active |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 3.8% | +1.0pp | $675 | active |
| Gary Woodland | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $1K | active |
| Jake Knapp | 0.3% | — | $854 | active |
| Nicolai Højgaard | 1.0% | +0.1pp | $1K | active |
| Min Woo Lee | 0.8% | -0.05pp | $1K | active |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0.5% | — | $802 | active |
| Sepp Straka | 1.6% | +0.1pp | $1K | active |
| Ryan Gerard | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $847 | active |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4.4% | -0.05pp | $1K | active |
| Rory McIlroy | 13.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 3.7% | — | $733 | active |
| Nico Echavarria | 4.0% | — | $621 | active |
| Chris Gotterup | 3.8% | — | $1K | active |
| J.J. Spaun | 3.5% | -1.2pp | $1K | active |
| Russell Henley | 2.0% | — | $1K | active |
| Daniel Berger | 2.4% | — | $930 | active |
| Si Woo Kim | 3.0% | — | $1K | active |
| Robert MacIntyre | 2.8% | — | $1K | active |
| Akshay Bhatia | 2.0% | — | $1K | active |
| Collin Morikawa | 2.0% | — | $466 | active |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0.5% | — | $548 | active |
| Justin Rose | 0.8% | — | $740 | active |
| Adam Scott | 0.3% | — | $873 | active |
Probability sum: 104.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament. If a listed player withdraws, is disqualified, does not participate or is eliminated from contention for the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by September 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
5%
4%
3%
7%
4%
1%