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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
3%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 3% to 3%, gradually rather than in one jump.
3%
12 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
3%
12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
3%
12 Oct 2026, 16:43 UTC
3%
12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
3%
13 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
3%
16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC