Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?
11%
Limited history+2.5pp
24h activity $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
75%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
75%
24h Change
-4.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $237 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $5,800 | 10.5% | +2.5pp | $7K | active |
| ↑ $8,200 | 35.0% | +8.0pp | $4K | active |
| ↓ $4,500 | 4.2% | — | $11K | active |
| ↑ $8,600 | 12.5% | — | $12K | active |
| ↓ $6,000 | 18.0% | +1.5pp | $119 | active |
| ↓ $6,200 | 16.1% | -0.9pp | $2K | active |
| ↑ $9,000 | 7.5% | — | $106 | active |
| ↑ $9,300 | 4.9% | -0.5pp | $1K | active |
| ↓ $5,200 | 6.5% | — | $20K | active |
| ↑ $8,000 | 74.5% | -4.5pp | $237 | active |
| ↓ $7,000 | 57.5% | +5.5pp | $242 | active |
| ↑ $10,000 | 3.3% | +0.3pp | $138 | active |
| ↓ $7,400 | 66.5% | +14.5pp | $266 | active |
| ↓ $7,200 | 61.5% | +9.5pp | $259 | active |
| ↑ $7,600 | 100.0% | +7.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ $7,800 | 100.0% | +17.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ $7,400 | 100.0% | +8.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ $6,400 | 100.0% | +7.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ $6,600 | 100.0% | +8.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 21:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
11%
35%
4%
13%
18%
16%