Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
13%
Limited history+0.5pp
24h activity $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 26% probability for this outcome, a -2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
26%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
26%
24h Change
-2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 15.5pp, from 55% to 39%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC.
53%
17 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
45%
17 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
57%
17 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
45%
17 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
39%
17 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
26%
21 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $226 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $6,200 | 12.8% | +0.5pp | $14K | active |
| ↓ $7,200 | 41.0% | +5.0pp | $390 | active |
| ↑ $8,600 | 8.5% | — | $17K | active |
| ↓ $4,500 | 3.4% | -0.5pp | $19K | active |
| ↑ $8,200 | 27.0% | +0.5pp | $10K | active |
| ↓ $5,200 | 3.5% | -0.5pp | $28K | active |
| ↓ $5,800 | 6.5% | — | $16K | active |
| ↑ $9,300 | 4.8% | +0.05pp | $378 | active |
| ↓ $6,000 | 8.5% | — | $13K | active |
| ↓ $7,000 | 25.5% | -2.0pp | $226 | active |
| ↑ $8,000 | 47.0% | +1.5pp | $38 | active |
| ↑ $10,000 | 3.5% | — | $95 | active |
| ↑ $9,000 | 10.6% | — | $428 | active |
| ↓ $7,400 | 66.0% | — | $159 | active |
| ↑ $7,600 | 100.0% | +7.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ $7,800 | 100.0% | +17.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ $7,400 | 100.0% | +8.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ $6,400 | 100.0% | +7.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ $6,600 | 100.0% | +8.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 21:00 UTC