Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?
1%
Limited history-3.3pp
24h activity $784Closes 1 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 46% probability for this outcome, a -18.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
46%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
46%
24h Change
-18.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
98
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 22.0pp from 68% to 46%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
68%
24 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
68%
24 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
68%
24 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
68%
24 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC
54%
27 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
46%
28 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 18.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $6K and 24h activity is $5K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 46.0% | -18.0pp | $6K | active |
| September 30 | 0.8% | -3.3pp | $3K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/XPJfnzoeRtB7UEmDA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC