Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?
18%
Limited history+5.5pp
24h activity $20KCloses 1 Jan 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 8% probability for this outcome, a +1.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
8%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
8%
24h Change
+1.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 2.3pp from 6% to 8%, gradually rather than in one jump.
6%
21 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
6%
21 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
6%
21 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
6%
21 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
6%
22 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
8%
25 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $13K and 24h activity is $2. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.25T–$1.5T | 17.6% | +5.5pp | $13K | active |
| $1.75T–$2.0T | 13.0% | -4.5pp | $13K | active |
| $1.5T–$1.75T | 19.1% | -2.5pp | $8K | active |
| <$1T | 26.3% | -0.5pp | $9K | active |
| $1.0T–$1.25T | 8.0% | +1.1pp | $13K | active |
| $2.5T+ | 4.4% | -1.6pp | $6K | active |
| $2.25T–$2.5T | 5.7% | +0.05pp | $10K | active |
| $2.0T–$2.25T | 6.1% | -1.1pp | $8K | active |
Probability sum: 100.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jul 2027, 00:00 UTC