Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
8%
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
94%
24h Change
+5.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
15
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 5.3pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $10K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Why this may have moved
Attribution is only attempted for meaningful medium- or high-signal moves; thin or low-confidence moves are skipped.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
8%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 7.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Florida | 97.2% | +2.3pp | $23K | active |
| South Carolina | 4.4% | -0.3pp | $16K | active |
| Alabama | 84.0% | -1.0pp | $13K | active |
| Nebraska | 4.5% | — | $16K | active |
| Minnesota | 2.7% | -0.2pp | $20K | active |
Current implied probability
94%Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: Low97%
4%
84%
85%
6%
| Wisconsin | 5.8% | +0.3pp | $16K | active |
| California | 96.3% | +0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Texas | 97.3% | +0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Illinois | 3.5% | +0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Virginia | 4.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Maryland | 5.7% | -0.1pp | $16K | active |
| Utah | 84.5% | — | $23K | active |
| Washington | 6.5% | — | $15K | active |
| New Jersey | 4.3% | -0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Ohio | 94.3% | +5.3pp | $10K | active |
| Louisiana | 92.5% | — | $13K | active |
| North Carolina | 95.8% | +0.05pp | $15K | active |
| Indiana | 5.5% | — | $21K | active |
| Missouri | 90.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Georgia | 6.0% | — | $19K | active |
| New York | 3.1% | -0.05pp | $18K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.