EAEventAlpha
Sport

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

42%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-1.0pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 1.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

42%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
41.5%
No implied probability
58.5%
Liquidity
$3.1M
Market Activity
$4.5M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
22 Jun 2026, 22:20 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 25 Jun 2026, 20:46 UTC

What this market asks

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Current market read

This market asks whether Norway will win on 2026-06-22, with the current market-implied probability at 41.5%. It is one outcome within the multi-outcome event "Norway vs. Senegal," so the volume and liquidity shown reflect this outcome's market activity only. The market is active and currently open.

Key takeaways

  • Current market-implied probability is 41.5%, indicating the market is pricing Norway below even odds.
  • 24h movement is -1, showing a small downward move in the market-implied probability.
  • Volume and liquidity are substantial for this outcome's market activity.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is one outcome within a grouped event, so the figures reflect this outcome's market activity only.
  • The resolution depends on official match statistics, with a fallback to credible reporting if those are not published within 2 hours.
  • The market outcome is limited to the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time, not extra time or penalties.

Resolution summary

This market resolves to "Yes" if Norway wins the game, and to "No" otherwise. It refers only to the result within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the game is completed. If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, it resolves "No". The primary resolution source is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers; if final match statistics are not published within 2 hours after the event ends, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 22, 2026 If Norway wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

Resolution source: https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 23 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.