Finance
LowMarket data current
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%?
3%
Limited history
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
7%
24h Change
+0.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
AI brief generated from stored market data at 25 Jul 2026, 21:13 UTC
AI brief may be stale. Current market metrics are shown above.
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 2.5%?
AI summary is unavailable because stored summary data is older than the latest market metrics. Current market metrics are shown above.
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
3%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.5-0.0% | 3.0% | — | $567 | active |
| 1.0-1.5% | 34.0% | -1.0pp | $347 | active |
| 2.5%+ | 7.2% | +0.8pp | $2K | active |
| 0.0-0.5% | 5.5% | +0.05pp | $1K | active |
| 0.5-1.0% | 5.3% | +0.3pp | $311 | active |
| <-0.5% | 5.0% | +0.3pp | $213 | active |
Current implied probability
7%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: LowThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.8pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $2K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jul 2026, 06:00 UTC
5%
34%
6%
41%
14%
| 2.0-2.5% | 13.6% | — | $414 | active |
| 1.5-2.0% | 41.0% | -1.0pp | $335 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.