Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
12%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $16KCloses 26 Oct 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
67%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
67%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $4K and 24h activity is $12. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sutcliffe | 67.0% | -0.5pp | $4K | active |
| Alex Lawson | 11.9% | — | $15K | active |
| Jeff Leiper | 19.5% | — | $17K | active |
| Neil Saravanamuttoo | 2.2% | +0.6pp | $16K | active |
| Catherine McKenney | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $13K | active |
Probability sum: 101.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 26 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
12%
20%
2%
0%