Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
4%
Limited history-0.3pp
24h activity $3Closes 27 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 90% probability for this outcome, a -4.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
90%Recent probability movement (down 4.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
90%
24h Change
-4.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 10.0pp, from 83% to 93%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
86%
7 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
86%
7 Oct 2026, 14:29 UTC
86%
7 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
86%
7 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
93%
9 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
90%
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sutcliffe | 89.5% | -4.0pp | $30K | active |
| Alex Lawson | 3.7% | -0.3pp | $27K | active |
| Jeff Leiper | 2.9% | +0.05pp | $26K | active |
| Neil Saravanamuttoo | 1.6% | -1.1pp | $23K | active |
| Catherine McKenney | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $26K | active |
Probability sum: 98.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 27 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC