Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027?
46%
Limited history+17.4pp
24h activity $3KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 37% probability for this outcome, a +13.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
37%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
37%
24h Change
+13.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 35.0pp, from 23% to 58%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
20%
13 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
20%
13 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
20%
13 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
22%
13 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
58%
16 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
37%
17 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 13.5pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $15 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $8 | 45.9% | +17.4pp | $8K | active |
| ↑ $10 | 15.9% | +4.2pp | $20K | active |
| ↑ $6 | 62.5% | +8.5pp | $18K | active |
| ↑ $12 | 10.7% | +0.5pp | $134 | active |
| ↓ $3 | 43.5% | -5.5pp | $507 | active |
| ↓ $2.5 | 31.0% | -19.5pp | $229 | active |
| ↑ $20 | 3.0% | — | $103 | active |
| ↓ $2 | 36.5% | +13.5pp | $15 | active |
| ↑ $15 | 3.7% | -0.1pp | $337 | active |
| ↓ $2 | 100.0% | +17.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ $1.5 | 100.0% | +13.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ $4 | 100.0% | +22.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ $3 | 100.0% | +23.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ $1 | 100.0% | +2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Lighter 1-minute candle for Lighter (LIT/USDC) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Lighter, specifically the LIT/USDC “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Lighter LIT/USDC trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC