Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?
6%
Limited history-21.0pp
24h activity $645Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 8% probability for this outcome, a -13.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
8%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
8%
24h Change
-13.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 29.0pp, from 41% to 12%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC.
60%
27 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
61%
27 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
61%
27 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
59%
27 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
12%
27 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
8%
1 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 13.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $257 and 24h activity is $773. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo Ledezma | 7.5% | -13.0pp | $257 | active |
| Juan Reyes Mejía González | 5.5% | -21.0pp | $500 | active |
| Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar | 19.0% | -0.5pp | $332 | active |
| Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar | 20.6% | -2.0pp | $598 | active |
| Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | 21.5% | -0.5pp | $1K | active |
| Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez | 22.0% | +6.5pp | $647 | active |
| Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan | 18.3% | -15.8pp | $101 | active |
| Audias Flores-Silva | 100.0% | +23.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC