Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
91%
Limited history+1.0pp
24h activity $615Closes 19 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
5%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
34
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.5pp from 6% to 5%, gradually rather than in one jump.
6%
1 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
6%
1 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
6%
1 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
6%
1 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
5%
2 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
5%
3 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $23K and 24h activity is $346. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 91.0% | +1.0pp | $45K | active |
| Jordan Bardella | 5.0% | -0.5pp | $23K | active |
| Clémentine Autain | 3.6% | +1.1pp | $21K | active |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 7.2% | +0.5pp | $29K | active |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 2.4% | +0.1pp | $19K | active |
| Clémence Guetté | 2.3% | +0.6pp | $18K | active |
| David Lisnard | 8.9% | — | $84K | active |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.1% | +0.05pp | $22K | active |
| Carole Delga | 4.3% | -0.5pp | $26K | active |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.4% | +0.4pp | $18K | active |
| Gabriel Attal | 5.3% | +0.3pp | $45K | active |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 43.0% | -2.0pp | $35K | active |
| Olivier Faure | 4.3% | — | $50K | active |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 3.3% | — | $25K | active |
| François Hollande | 6.4% | — | $53K | active |
| Manuel Bompard | 4.5% | -0.05pp | $32K | active |
| François Ruffin | 4.2% | -0.1pp | $19K | active |
| Sarah Knafo | 3.5% | — | $22K | active |
| Élisabeth Borne | 3.7% | — | $78K | active |
| Ségolène Royal | 3.8% | +0.6pp | $19K | active |
| Édouard Philippe | 44.5% | — | $34K | active |
| Juan Branco | 3.3% | -0.3pp | $40K | active |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 2.2% | -0.7pp | $19K | active |
| François Bayrou | 4.2% | — | $36K | active |
| Michel Barnier | 2.4% | +0.5pp | $25K | active |
| Bruno Retailleau | 3.5% | — | $22K | active |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 4.0% | -0.05pp | $32K | active |
| Gérald Darmanin | 4.3% | -0.1pp | $22K | active |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3.4% | -0.1pp | $26K | active |
| François Asselineau | 1.8% | — | $26K | active |
| Mathilde Panot | 0.3% | — | $18K | active |
| Valérie Pécresse | 1.6% | — | $18K | active |
| Xavier Bertrand | 1.3% | — | $18K | active |
| Dominique de Villepin | 4.5% | — | $25K | active |
| Jean Castex | 2.2% | +0.1pp | $18K | active |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5% | — | $30K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 19 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC