Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
67%
Limited history+4.1pp
24h activity $1KCloses 18 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a -0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.4pp from 1% to 1%, gradually rather than in one jump.
1%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
1%
28 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
1%
28 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
1%
28 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
0%
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
1%
2 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $32K and 24h activity is $234. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Fry | 67.2% | +4.1pp | $52K | active |
| Ken Sim | 32.5% | -1.5pp | $35K | active |
| Colleen Hardwick | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $27K | active |
| Kirk LaPointe | 0.4% | -0.3pp | $41K | active |
| Kareem Allam | 1.8% | -0.7pp | $37K | active |
| William Azaroff | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $40K | active |
| John Coupar | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $32K | active |
| Amanda Burrows | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $31K | active |
| Tim Louis | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $30K | active |
| Sean Orr | 0.1% | — | $27K | active |
| Stephanie Allen | 0.1% | — | $31K | active |
| Rebecca Bligh | 0.4% | -0.05pp | $23K | active |
| Fred Harding | 0.1% | — | $25K | active |
Probability sum: 104.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2026 Vancouver mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Vancouver as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Vancouver.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC