Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Wes Moore be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
3%
Limited history-0.6pp
24h activity $15Closes 10 Aug 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 10% probability for this outcome, a -0.3pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
10%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
10%
24h Change
-0.3pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 2.2pp, from 7% to 9%, between 05:00 and 06:00 UTC.
7%
15 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
9%
15 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
10%
15 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
10%
15 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
9%
15 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC
10%
19 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.3pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $50K and 24h activity is $50. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gretchen Whitmer | 9.6% | -0.3pp | $50K | active |
| Wes Moore | 3.4% | -0.6pp | $47K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 1.1% | +0.6pp | $24K | active |
| Ro Khanna | 2.4% | +0.1pp | $25K | active |
| Chris Murphy | 2.5% | +2.1pp | $6K | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 2.8% | -0.1pp | $55K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 2.1% | — | $34K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 2.0% | -2.0pp | $41K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9.5% | -1.0pp | $44K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.2% | — | $56K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 5.8% | +0.1pp | $47K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.5% | +0.1pp | $43K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 3.4% | -0.1pp | $33K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 3.5% | +0.7pp | $43K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 5.4% | -0.1pp | $60K | active |
| Barack Obama | 2.0% | — | $39K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 2.8% | +0.1pp | $49K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 4.7% | -0.05pp | $40K | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 3.1% | -0.05pp | $14K | active |
| Phil Murphy | 3.8% | +0.5pp | $6K | active |
| Jon Stewart | 1.3% | +0.3pp | $22K | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $51K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.3% | -0.6pp | $19K | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.9% | -0.4pp | $28K | active |
| George Clooney | 0.8% | — | $18K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.7% | — | $44K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 1.9% | — | $34K | active |
| James Talarico | 2.6% | -0.5pp | $25K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 0.3% | — | $45K | active |
| Cory Booker | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $26K | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 6.0% | — | $14K | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.7% | — | $15K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 0.8% | -0.3pp | $40K | active |
| Jared Polis | 1.5% | +0.05pp | $15K | active |
| Liz Cheney | 0.3% | — | $17K | active |
| John Fetterman | 1.3% | — | $18K | active |
| Andrew Yang | 1.3% | -0.05pp | $14K | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.8% | — | $14K | active |
| LeBron James | 3.9% | — | $38K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 2.7% | +0.4pp | $34K | active |
| Ruben Gallego | 2.0% | -0.05pp | $16K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 0.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.7% | — | $15K | active |
Probability sum: 114.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 10 Aug 2028, 00:00 UTC