Finance
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?
11%
Limited history-2.0pp
24h activity $465Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 4% probability for this outcome, a -0.6pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
4%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
4%
24h Change
-0.6pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 0.2pp from 4% to 4%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
4%
14 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
4%
14 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
4%
14 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
5%
14 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
2%
18 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
4%
18 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.6pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $11K and 24h activity is $31. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $3,500 | 10.5% | -2.0pp | $22K | active |
| ↑ $6,000 | 9.5% | — | $48K | active |
| ↑ $5,000 | 39.0% | +1.0pp | $23K | active |
| ↑ $12,000 | 1.4% | +0.4pp | $49K | active |
| ↓ $2,500 | 3.8% | -0.6pp | $11K | active |
| ↑ $7,000 | 5.5% | +1.0pp | $78K | active |
| ↓ $3,000 | 6.0% | +1.1pp | $24K | active |
| ↑ $5,000 | — | 0.0pp | $0 | active |
| ↑ $15,000 | 0.7% | +0.05pp | $44K | active |
| ↑ $10,000 | 1.4% | -0.1pp | $65K | active |
| ↑ $8,000 | 3.3% | — | $54K | active |
| ↑ $4,500 | 49.5% | — | $0 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC