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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: rose 0.0pp from 0% to 0%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
0%
25 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
0%
25 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
0%
25 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
0%
25 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
0%
25 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
0%
29 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to the calendar month in 2026 during which Bitcoin has the highest percentage change. The “Change” value shown for each monthly candle will be used. A monthly candle is considered finalized once the following month’s candle is published. The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT trading pair: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT If two or more months are tied for the highest percentage change, this market will resolve to the earliest month chronologically. Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered. If it becomes impossible for a given month to have the highest percentage change in 2026, that outcome may resolve to “No” immediately.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | 1.1% | -8.2pp | $6K | active |
| December | 6.5% | — | $6K | active |
| November | 3.8% | -0.3pp | $8K | active |
| August | 87.7% | +4.8pp | $6K | active |
| September | 0.3% | — | $8K | active |
| February | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| January | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| April | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| June | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| May | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July | 0.0% | -4.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 99.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)