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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a -2.4pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Recent probability movement (down 2.4pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
5%
24h Change
-2.4pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.7pp from 6% to 5%, gradually rather than in one jump.
6%
21 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
6%
21 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
6%
21 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
6%
21 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
4%
25 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
5%
25 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.4pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
The market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee "Faker" Sang-hyeok is officially announced as the Finals MVP of any international event in 2026 (such as First Stand, MSI, Esports World Cup, Worlds, or any other officially recognized global Riot Games LoL tournament). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve to “No” when it becomes impossible for Faker to win such an award (e.g., if his team is eliminated from all remaining international events without him receiving an MVP, or the season concludes without qualification). This market will resolve to “No” if no Finals MVP Award has been officially announced for Faker by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official LoL Esports channels and Riot Games (https://lolesports.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://lolesports.com. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC