Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?
6%
Limited history+2.5pp
24h activity $457Closes 5 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 96% probability for this outcome, a +1.8pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
96%Recent probability movement (up 1.8pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
96%
24h Change
+1.8pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
50
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 12.9pp, from 93% to 80%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC.
78%
4 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC
80%
4 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC
83%
4 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTC
95%
4 Nov 2026, 09:00 UTC
80%
5 Nov 2026, 09:00 UTC
96%
6 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.8pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Jones | 95.7% | +1.8pp | $11K | active |
| Mike Thompson | 6.1% | +2.5pp | $13K | active |
Probability sum: 101.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC