Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Donald Trump visit Oregon in 2026?
20%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $20KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 29% probability for this outcome, a +1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
29%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
29%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 7.0pp, from 22% to 29%, between 11:00 and 12:40 UTC.
22%
13 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
23%
13 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
23%
13 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
23%
13 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
29%
15 Sept 2026, 12:40 UTC
29%
17 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $47 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 19.8% | — | $120 | active |
| New Hampshire | 56.0% | +3.5pp | $96 | active |
| Mississippi | 25.0% | +0.5pp | $76 | active |
| Vermont | 26.5% | -1.0pp | $152 | active |
| Wyoming | 39.0% | — | $101 | active |
| Idaho | 35.5% | — | $146 | active |
| Illinois | 94.7% | -1.1pp | $104 | active |
| Washington | 28.5% | +1.0pp | $47 | active |
| Hawaii | 18.0% | — | $260 | active |
| Kansas | 38.0% | +6.0pp | $161 | active |
| Alabama | 55.0% | — | $82 | active |
| Utah | 21.0% | — | $78 | active |
| Minnesota | 42.5% | +1.0pp | $230 | active |
| Nebraska | 49.0% | — | $57 | active |
| West Virginia | 42.0% | — | $43 | active |
| Rhode Island | 33.5% | +4.5pp | $79 | active |
| Colorado | 41.0% | -0.5pp | $208 | active |
| Arkansas | 47.5% | +1.0pp | $52 | active |
| New Mexico | 43.0% | — | $105 | active |
| Montana | 45.5% | -1.0pp | $148 | active |
| Indiana | 52.5% | — | $35 | active |
| Maine | 50.0% | — | $74 | active |
| Louisiana | 47.5% | — | $26 | active |
| Massachusetts | 34.5% | — | $110 | active |
| Oklahoma | 49.5% | — | $84 | active |
| Missouri | 47.5% | — | $80 | active |
| Florida | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Maryland | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Texas | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Georgia | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| North Carolina | 100.0% | +1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Iowa | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Michigan | 100.0% | +0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| Arizona | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Alaska | 100.0% | +24.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| North Dakota | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| South Dakota | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Virginia | 100.0% | +13.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| South Carolina | 100.0% | +2.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| New Jersey | 100.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| California | 100.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| New York | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Pennsylvania | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Nevada | 100.0% | +1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Wisconsin | 100.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Connecticut | 100.0% | +4.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ohio | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Kentucky | 100.0% | +1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Tennessee | 100.0% | +17.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Delaware | 100.0% | -2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC