Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
94%
Limited history+7.6pp
24h activity $103Closes —
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 7% probability for this outcome, a -3.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
7%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
7%
24h Change
-3.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 6.3pp, from 4% to 10%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC.
10%
14 Sept 2026, 11:00 UTC
10%
14 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC
9%
14 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
9%
14 Sept 2026, 14:01 UTC
10%
15 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
7%
18 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $9K and 24h activity is $123. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13-15 | 7.3% | -3.0pp | $9K | active |
| 10-12 | 94.3% | +7.6pp | $9K | active |
| 7-9 | 0.0% | -2.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| >15 | 0.0% | -1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| 4-6 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| <3 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 101.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.