Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Palmeiras win Copa Libertadores?
29%
Limited history-1.0pp
24h activity $167Closes 12 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 2% probability for this outcome, a +0.3pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
2%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
+0.3pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 17.5pp, from 21% to 3%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC.
25%
16 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
25%
16 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
25%
16 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
24%
16 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
3%
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
2%
20 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.3pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $141 and 24h activity is $7. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 28.5% | -1.0pp | $240 | active |
| Corinthians | 2.5% | +0.3pp | $141 | active |
| Flamengo | 48.0% | -2.5pp | $118 | active |
| Universidad Católica | 1.4% | — | $240 | active |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 0.1% | — | $464 | active |
| LDU Quito | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $868 | active |
| Rosario Central | 0.6% | — | $251 | active |
| Cerro Porteño | 0.5% | — | $204 | active |
| Estudiantes LP | 13.9% | — | $186 | active |
| Platense | 5.0% | -2.3pp | $370 | active |
| Mirassol | 0.8% | +0.05pp | $72 | active |
| Boca Juniors | 0.0% | -36.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Independiente Medellín | 0.0% | -41.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Always Ready | 0.0% | -42.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Nacional | 0.0% | -46.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Santa Fe | 0.0% | -40.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Libertad | 0.0% | -46.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Peñarol | 0.0% | -35.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lanús | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Universidad Central | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Bolívar | 0.0% | -40.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Junior | 0.0% | -9.7pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 101.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is determined as the champion of the Copa Libertadores. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of Copa Libertadores per the rules of Copa Libertadores (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the Copa Libertadores; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 12 Dec 2026, 03:59 UTC