Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Marcin Tybura be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
0%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $167KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 67% probability for this outcome, a +1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
67%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
67%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 2.0pp, from 68% to 66%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
68%
16 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
68%
16 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
68%
16 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
68%
16 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
66%
16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
67%
20 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $1K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Alexander Volkov | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Ciryl Gane | 66.5% | +1.0pp | $1K | active |
| Tom Aspinall | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Josh Hokit | 30.1% | -0.2pp | $1K | active |
| Derrick Lewis | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Alex Pereira | 0.8% | — | $863 | active |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Serghei Spivac | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Ante Delija | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Jailton Almeida | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
Probability sum: 98.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/athletes. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC