Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Chainlink reach $16 by December 31, 2026?
58%
Limited history+22.5pp
24h activity $555Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 62% probability for this outcome, a -2.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
62%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
62%
24h Change
-2.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 23.0pp, from 69% to 46%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
70%
14 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
70%
14 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
69%
14 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
69%
14 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
46%
15 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
62%
18 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $2K and 24h activity is $5. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 16 | 57.5% | +22.5pp | $4K | active |
| ↑ 20 | 24.0% | +8.0pp | $4K | active |
| ↑ 24 | 13.5% | +7.0pp | $2K | active |
| ↑ 26 | 12.7% | +3.4pp | $3K | active |
| ↑ 18 | 44.5% | +18.5pp | $2K | active |
| ↑ 22 | 13.5% | +2.0pp | $1K | active |
| ↓ 10 | 76.0% | +20.5pp | $2K | active |
| ↑ 14 | 61.5% | -2.5pp | $2K | active |
| ↓ 6 | 7.0% | — | $2K | active |
| ↓ 4 | 6.5% | — | $2K | active |
| ↓ 8 | 33.0% | -20.0pp | $553 | active |
| ↓ 12 | 100.0% | +22.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 8 | 100.0% | +29.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 14 | 100.0% | +8.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 10 | 100.0% | +32.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Chainlink (LINK/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the LINK/USDT “High” and "Low" prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/LINK_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Binance LINK/USDT price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC